My View: It’s time for the US to boost limits on H-1B visas
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For those interested in pursuing science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) careers, the Land of Opportunity is rife with more opportunities than imagined not long ago. In fact, the possibilities are the stuff that dreams are made of.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics forecasts that STEM jobs will grow 10.4% in the 10-year period ending 2033. That comes on the heels of STEM careers since 1990 increasing from 9.7 million to 17.3 million—a spike of nearly 80%–when total employment in the nation grew 34%, according to a 2018 Pew Research Center report.
I can vouch for the explosive growth experienced in Arizona since I witness it daily. On a national scale, the “2024 State of the Tech Workforce” report from industry group CompTIA expects the ranks of just seven career categories ranging from web developers to data scientists to be more than double the national rate over the next decade.
Sounds great, right? Well, a hint of challenges ahead is CompTIA estimating the replacement rate for technology occupations through 2034 will average about 6% annually. That means approximately 350,000 workers will be needed just as replacement hires each year.
That alone is cause of concern. But the alarm was sounded even earlier. Results of a 2018 survey by global technology and engineering company Emerson revealed two out of five Americans indicated the STEM worker shortage already had reached a crisis level.
Emerson also noted that just in the manufacturing sector, the National Association of Manufacturing and Deloitte had predicted the United States may not be able to fill as many as 2 million of approximately 3.5 million STEM job openings by 2025. (Yes, that’s this year!)
As you might surmise, the nation will need some help if we are to compete with the rest of the globe. Fortunately, there is a partial remedy already in place for U.S. companies. It’s called H-1B.
H-1B visa cap should be raised
Because H-1B visas have been mentioned in news cycles lately, allow me to make sure you have the facts. The details of H-1B visas are specific. They are made available for employers who want to hire foreign-born workers with at least bachelor degrees to be temporarily employed in specialty fields. For technology, that means employees are found in industries such as aerospace, artificial intelligence, computing and robotics.
When it comes to who is employed in these fields, 19% of STEM workers in 2021 were foreign-born, according to U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey results included in a 2024 National Science Board report. While there is no breakdown of how many were in the country with H-1B visas, being just part of a fifth of the STEM workforce should help dispel the myth about the jobs being “taken” by those not born in the United States.
As you can tell, there are more than enough jobs for workers with the right credentials to fill new positions or replace workers who leave the ranks. But as it stands now, counting on H-1B workers alone to fill the gap is not a sure thing.
The annual cap of new H-1B visas is stuck at 65,000, which was established as part of omnibus legislation that become law in December 2004. The total of applications since then has typically rocketed past the limit.
To help our dire situation, the time has come for a change. Congress and the new administration need to update the outdated limit. Our nation should be using market-based caps on H-1B visas to adjust to supply and demand in the U.S. economy. In fact, limits should be stricken out of the law altogether since the demand for what we do and will offer is only expected to increase.
And the time to do it is now.
When it comes to finding ways to bolster Arizona and the rest of the nation’s economy, there is no room for myths here or on Capitol Hill. The fact is, we can’t miss this opportunity.
Steve Zylstra is president and CEO of the Arizona Technology Council.